Fantasy Boiz · 2026 Week 4

Fantasy Boiz — 2026 Week 4

What an incredible hot streak from the man who's been called gay and submissive all year. Last week Hunter was put in his place, and now Irish has added the rest of the league to his collection with the high score. 164.08, his first high score since exactly one year ago and only the third of his career.

The guy who almost stopped him is the bigger story. Bhuh has the longest high-score drought in the league: 26 regular-season weeks. His last week on top was Week 6 of 2024 (152.45). He's gone the rest of 2024, all of 2025 and four weeks of 2026 without one, and this week he finished 2.29 behind at 161.79. It was a coin flip going into Monday night — Bhuh 49%, Irish 51% — and he got as high as 63% before Irish pulled away. Next-longest droughts: Hunter at 15 weeks, then Ahmad 12, Tsao 11, Eric 10.

High-score droughts, regular season only, counting every week since 2021:

ManagerDroughtLast high scoreCareer high scores
Bhuh26 weeks2024 Wk 6 (152.45)5
Hunter15 weeks2025 Wk 3 (190.73)7
Ahmad12 weeks2025 Wk 6 (180.49)3
Jon Tsao11 weeks2025 Wk 7 (166.40)8
Eric Wang10 weeks2025 Wk 8 (225.97)4
Justin Chan7 weeks2025 Wk 11 (149.98)6
Adam Brandon5 weeks2025 Wk 13 (175.98)8
Derrick Choi4 weeks2025 Wk 14 (189.35)4
Salmaan3 weeks2026 Wk 1 (193.58)5
Daniel Nguyen2 weeks2026 Wk 2 (187.55)8
Kerry Chen1 week2026 Wk 3 (154.63)8
Matthew McNamara— this week2026 Wk 4 (164.08)3

Ahmad joined in 2024, Chan and Irish in 2022, so their career counts cover fewer seasons.


The $25 and the high score

Irish high at 164.08. Salmaan lowest at 101.92, and he owes the 25 dollars.

Irish got there on CeeDee Lamb's 21 targets — 17 catches, 189 yards — plus Kenneth Walker's 177 rushing yards. Bhuh peaked at 63% after Tetairoa McMillan's 38.7-point game, but Drake London didn't do enough to close it out on Monday Night Football.

Eric spent much of the weekend as the favorite to pay, peaking at 63% with Bijan still to come, but Bijan put up 28.7 on Monday night. The low score was a slow collapse by Salmaan, finishing at 101.92. He's the first person this season to be both the high scorer (Week 1) and the low scorer.

Race for high score
0%25%50%75%100%Thu 5:16pSun 7:05aSun 5:36pMon 5:37pMatthew McNamaraHunterBhuhDaniel Nguyen
Probability each manager finishes the week as the league's highest scorer. Coloured lines were seriously in it; the rest of the league is grey. Hover for every manager at that moment.
Race for the $25 · lowest score
0%25%50%75%100%Thu 5:16pSun 7:05aSun 5:36pMon 5:37pSalmaanEric WangDerrick Choi
Probability each manager finishes the week as the league's lowest scorer — the one who pays. Hover for every manager at that moment.

Betting

Sixteen wagers on two games, and Ahmad bet on both sides of the same one. $10 on Salmaan, $10 on Amato. That's a free roll: one has to win and one has to lose, so it can't cost him anything. Ruling: all three of Ahmad's Week 4 bets are void, including his $10 on Tsao. The Habibis count Josh's votes only, and Josh went 1-1 and broke even.

Second ruling: bets are capped at $10 per team. Tsao ticked both "Salmaan $5" and "Salmaan $10" for $15 on one team, so the $5 is void and the $10 stands.

After both rulings it's 12 wagers, $105 staked. Winners got $60, I collected $45, so the house is down $15.

BettorRecordStakedNet
Adam Brandon5-2$70+$30
Ahmad2-0$20+$20
Alex Amato2-0$20+$20
Daniel Nguyen3-2$50+$10
Matthew McNamara3-4$50+$10
Derrick Choi1-0$5+$5
Eric Wang3-3$60even
Justin Chan3-3$40even
Josh Demeo2-2$40even
Hunter1-1$20even
Jon Tsao1-1$20even
Bhuh0-0——
Kerry Chen0-0——
Salmaan0-0——

AB leads the season at +$30, and has the most poll wins at 5. Bhuh, Kerry and Salmaan still haven't placed a single bet.

The injury report

Every rostered injury, whether or not it cost anybody. Status is Sleeper's as of Tuesday.

New this week:

give him a slim chance to play Week 5.

Still out:

anyway and got a zero.

Dart is on IR.


Stars of the week — the 30-point club

Four guys cleared 30 for the second week running.

out, and he beat his expected points by 18 — only Davante Adams and JSN, both in Week 2, have had bigger overperformances this season. Two weeks ago he was on the Losers list with 2.70.

12th time since 2016 anybody has seen 20 targets in a game, and the second time one of them caught 17.

highest by any Rams back since 2025, on 82% of the snaps. He has all 9 of the Rams' backfield touches inside the 10 this season.

after Andy Reid said Johnson would get more work.

Losers of the week — started, projected, and did nothing

Healthy, started, and nothing to show for it:

week. 1/3 for 7 yards. An 85% route share as usual but a season-low 13% target share — 36% in Weeks 1–2, 16% since.

32 plays, the fewest by any team since at least 2016 except one.

Among 50 backs with 20 carries he's ahead of only George Holani in 10-yard runs, and bottom five in yards after contact. Woody Marks scored from the 6 one play after Montgomery's 19-yard run.

fell from 67% to 49%.

after 30% or more in Weeks 2 and 3.


Trades and the waiver wire

One trade: Salmaan sent Jordan Mason to Chan for Dontayvion Wicks on Saturday. Mason is on IR with a thumb injury. Wicks led the Eagles in routes on Sunday without DeVonta Smith and scored 3.30 in Salmaan's lineup. Nice trade for Chan to get RB help after De'Von Achane's injury, and to get off a flaccid Eagles offense.

Wednesday's run: 59 claims, 17 players moved, and almost all of it was replacing this week's injuries.

The big four:

went 5-103-1 for 21.3 points after DJ Moore left on Sunday. Maybe one of the most surprising overpays of the season so far.

Bigsby on IR. Also paid $17 for Austin Ekeler. That's $73 on running backs in one night, after trading for an injured one on Saturday.

chance to start Week 5, and Huntley replaces Case Keenum after one week. Choi's QBs are now Dak, Huntley and an injured Caleb.

a 93% route share with Chase and Higgins both banged up. AB bid 10, Irish 7, Ahmad and Amato 3.

The rest:

Steelers.

Jennings. With McConkey and DeVonta Smith both out, he needed bodies.

without Justin Jefferson — for 24.9 points.

Most active: Irish and Ahmad, 11 claims apiece. Bhuh filed one and lost it.

FAAB left: Amato 203, Salmaan 200, Choi 176, Ahmad 170, AB 123. At the bottom, Chan has 45 and I have 38.


Matthew McNamaravsEric Wang
164.08 – 109.20MARGIN 54.88
Matchup win probability · Matthew McNamara vs Eric Wang
100%50%0%Thu 6:05p8:29pSun 10:04aMon 5:19p7:25p
Matthew McNamara win probability. Dots mark the biggest play-attributable swings.
Whole-week win probability · Matthew McNamara · over 8.7h of actual football
FinalWin % lowTime aheadLead changes
164.08 – 109.2027.1%90.6%0

Both Erics voted Irish dead last in the preseason survey. Irish won by 54.88, now leads the series 6-1, and has won four straight.

Despite the Erics being 18-point favorites going in, it was never close after Sunday. Irish is Eric's boogeyman. No lead changes and no single swing over 10%. Something about this matchup brings out the best in Irish. CeeDee Lamb caught 17 balls, Walker ran for 177 and two scores, and Irish finally started Kirk Cousins, who gave him 24.60. Herbert, for the record, scored 11.56 on the bench, and Cousins has now outscored him four weeks running.

Not sure how Irish is living so rent free in Eric's head that he's leaving 35.70 points on the bench, but it wouldn't have mattered. Even with Drake Maye 25.16 and Romeo Doubs 20.8, his best lineup scores 144.90, still 19 short. Braelon Allen, his $54 waiver buy, got every Jets carry and scored 7.7 because the Jets ran 32 plays. Bijan's 28.7 on Monday night got him off the hook for the $25. The Erics have been the most boom-or-bust team in the league this year: their weekly scoring ranks are 2nd, 12th, 3rd and 11th.


BhuhvsAdam Brandon
161.79 – 117.95MARGIN 43.84
Matchup win probability · Bhuh vs Adam Brandon
100%50%0%Thu 5:16pSun 10:03a5:35pMon 5:18p6:19pZay Flowers 10%Zay Flowers 9%
Bhuh win probability. Dots mark the biggest play-attributable swings.
Whole-week win probability · Bhuh · over 14.2h of actual football
FinalWin % lowTime aheadLead changes
161.79 – 117.9544.5%94.2%8

Irish was the belle of the ball, but Jordan and B were right on his tail. With no Coker and a matchup against the Lions, Tetairoa McMillan went 14 for 192 and two scores — 38.70 for a guy who was a Loser of the Week two weeks ago. Bhuh was the favorite for 94% of the game, with eight lead changes early. Somewhat surprised they pivoted to a 2-QB strategy despite all the success they've had playing one QB so far. Every single flex player on their bench outscored Tyson Bagent's 9.82 this week. Not sure why the model has Jordan's roster 9th — he's got some of the best depth in the league. I called the double QB injury the kiss of death a few weeks ago, well Jordan's 3-1 and 3rd in the standings now.

Add this to the list of weeks AB has started or sat Aaron Rodgers (23.96) wrong. Funny enough, the only time he's cracked the starting lineup was when he put up under 4 points 😂 Right after getting Zay Flowers back, the injury plague hits the rest of his roster. Rashee Rice got hurt in the first quarter and scored 0.0, and now Lamar Jackson is looking at an ankle sprain that may cost him Week 5. Not many things looking up for this team. The Jets offense can't stay on the field long enough to get Garrett Wilson touches. Jalon Daniels gave Bucky 0 targets, only his 3rd career game with 0 targets. Omarion Hampton is now in the worst(?) RB committee in the league: his rush share went 72%, 54%, 31%, and Keaton Mitchell, AB's own $20 pickup, led the Chargers in carries — from AB's bench. He's 1-3 despite being 7th in scoring. Not quite as unlucky as Irish or Chan, but he's 3rd in points against this year.


Kerry ChenvsSalmaan
123.96 – 101.92MARGIN 22.04
Matchup win probability · Kerry Chen vs Salmaan
100%50%0%Thu 5:17pSun 10:04aMon 5:27pBrock Purdy 12%Chuba Hubbard 15%Jahmyr Gibbs 14%
Kerry Chen win probability. Dots mark the biggest play-attributable swings.
Whole-week win probability · Kerry Chen · over 16.4h of actual football
FinalWin % lowTime aheadLead changes
123.96 – 101.9226.6%43.1%6
Swings of 10% or more · 4 · score and win percentage are after the play, for whoever led at that point
WhenPlaySwingScoreWin %
Sun 4:18pBrock Purdy (Kerry Chen) — Q4 02:25 · (Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short left to G.Kittle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.12%76.52 – 85.02Salmaan 52%
Sun 5:53pChuba Hubbard (Kerry Chen) — Q1 01:56 · C.Hubbard left tackle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.15%90.42 – 88.12Kerry Chen 76%
Sun 6:33pJahmyr Gibbs (Salmaan) — Q2 02:18 · L.Borom and S.Gill-Howard reported in as eligible. J.Gibbs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.14%90.52 – 97.62Kerry Chen 63%
Sun 7:33pChuba Hubbard (Kerry Chen) — Q3 02:52 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Hubbard up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.11%101.12 – 98.32Kerry Chen 92%

#1 vs #2 in last week's power rankings, and Amato won it — his third straight over Salmaan, and 4-0 on the season. Word around the league is that TFA hasn't felt they've been getting the respect they deserve. This should be the statement win that brings them to everyone's attention.

It was close for a while: six lead changes, and Amato was ahead for only 43% of the game, bottoming out at 27%. Chuba Hubbard decided it with two touchdowns — 15 yards and 2 yards, each worth 11–15% — for 26.90. Purdy continues his campaign for best-value QB this year — he's QB1 in our scoring — with 19.62, including a 56-yard score to Kittle. Tyler Shough added 15.94 on Monday night after the game was already over. A relatively down week for them, but the best takeaways are their keeper Quinshon Judkins becoming playable (18.6), and that they hold on to the most PF in the league by a small margin.

Salmaan pays the $25 and left 42.08 on the bench, the most of anyone. Kyle Monangai scored 29.0 there — 30 carries, 18 of them after D'Andre Swift fumbled — and Brian Robinson gets 3 TDs on his way to 25.2. Starting either one would've turned the tide, but instead he went with newly acquired WR1 Dontayvion Wicks, 3.3, and lost. Maybe if he spent as much time as he did cooking up Chinese names to refine his lineup he would've come out with a W this week. Instead it's 2-2 and the lowest score of the week.

Anyone have opinions on which of the names is worst? I imagine Salmaan prompted his agent to generate oriental names for players using this image as the only context. Naming Trey McBride as Derrick's brother, Troi Choi, was definitely a manual override though.

The reference image, presumably.
The reference image, presumably.

HuntervsAhmad
151.50 – 127.71MARGIN 23.79
Matchup win probability · Hunter vs Ahmad
100%50%0%Sun 6:34a5:25pMon 5:27pNico Collins 8%
Hunter win probability. Dots mark the biggest play-attributable swings.
Whole-week win probability · Hunter · over 15.2h of actual football
FinalWin % lowTime aheadLead changes
151.50 – 127.7134.9%77.0%3

How difficult it must be for the Habibis to be at war with one of its few alliances. Underneath the surface it's not quite as peachy, though: Josh voted Hunter last in the preseason survey. As a wise man once said, oh my god how embarrassing losing to the team you ranked 12th 😂.

Hanoi Hawgs (TM), in the group chat.
Hanoi Hawgs (TM), in the group chat.

Nico Collins 28.8 with an emphatic return from injury, and C.J. Stroud 24.08 — the Stroud Boys aren't the same without their complete stack. Stroud produces 0.55 points per dropback with Collins on the field and 0.32 without him.

These two had a cute little game of kicker ring-around-the-rosy. Hunter dropped Will Reichard on Thursday to pick up Fairbairn. Ahmad picked up Reichard on Friday. Fairbairn kicked for 17.4. Reichard kicked for 20.1 against him. As a side note, if Hunter wants to get full Texans Exodia, I think now would be the time to trade for David Montgomery. That'd be QB, RB, WR and K all from the same team.

Ahmad is 1-3 and lost Saquon after four snaps. Pretty disastrous start for their 2nd-round pick, who hasn't scored 10 points in a game even when he's played. I don't expect it to get much better when he comes back, with the Eagles just losing two key pieces of their offensive line. This week is especially heartbreaking knowing there was enough juice on the roster to get the W. He left 27.34 on the bench, including Carnell Tate's 17.5 and Allgeier's 11.9. Pretty surprising they started Mia Khalifa Raymond (1.6) over Tate. Tate is now 5th among rookie receivers in target share after four games since 2016, with 21 targets the last two weeks.

Hard to know if Cheeks' rebrand to Cheeks Habibi was an act of camaraderie or of disrespect against the desert people. I'd have to assume the Habibi butt plug was an act of haram against our Palestinian friends.


Jon TsaovsDerrick Choi
151.17 – 122.25MARGIN 28.92
Matchup win probability · Jon Tsao vs Derrick Choi
100%50%0%Thu 5:34p6:19p7:29pSun 6:41a10:03a5:33pMon 5:45p
Jon Tsao win probability. Dots mark the biggest play-attributable swings.
Whole-week win probability · Jon Tsao · over 13.7h of actual football
FinalWin % lowTime aheadLead changes
151.17 – 122.2570.3%100.0%6

Another bulletin-board win from the preseason survey: Choi voted Tsao dead last, and Tsao won by 28.92. He never trailed — his low point was 70% — and leads the series 6-2. The Rams stack popped off, Kyren Williams 32.20, Puka back from injury with 24.7, Tee Higgins 22.7 through a groin issue, and Bryce Young 22.46 — Young has already had three 20-point games this year, as many as all of last season. The breakout season for Bryce Young has him at QB3 on the year. It may have been disrespectful to lump Tsao in the same category as Choi, but that type of motivation led to his high score of the season. Hoop Boiz shouldn't be too excited though, they're under a litany of injuries themselves. Tee's limited, Michael Pittman's on a scooter, and Jeremiyah Love is talking about how the team is better off with Tyler Allgeier running the ball instead of him. I've never seen such explicit cuck behavior in a RB committee in my life.

The reigning champion Choi is 0-4. He's last in points at 448.43 and 8-36 against the field. He just made Harmony do a maternity photoshoot, and it's looking more and more likely his firstborn son is going to have to do one too 😂

No empathy for him on this front: it's the second week in a row he's started one QB, and he doesn't have nearly the depth Jordan does to be playing that game. Thankfully it looks like he's decided to fix that going into next week. Kamara put up 20.3 on Monday night and was really the only bright spot to his team. Maybe once he gets healthy his team won't be so ass. But I have a feeling he's already just playing to peak for the December Toilet Bowl.


Daniel NguyenvsJustin Chan
146.92 – 111.36MARGIN 35.56
Matchup win probability · Daniel Nguyen vs Justin Chan
100%50%0%Thu 5:33p7:21p8:42pSun 6:35a5:25p6:28p7:13pMon 5:45p6:43p8:05pMalik Nabers 12%Emanuel Wilson 14%Emanuel Wilson 10%
Daniel Nguyen win probability. Dots mark the biggest play-attributable swings.
Whole-week win probability · Daniel Nguyen · over 13.6h of actual football
FinalWin % lowTime aheadLead changes
146.92 – 111.3630.9%75.0%4
Swings of 10% or more · 3 · score and win percentage are after the play, for whoever led at that point
WhenPlaySwingScoreWin %
Sun 11:16aMalik Nabers (Justin Chan) — Q2 02:28 · (Shotgun) J.Winston pass deep middle to M.Nabers for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.12%40.56 – 54.26Justin Chan 55%
Sun 1:44pEmanuel Wilson (Daniel Nguyen) — Q1 10:03 · (Shotgun) S.Darnold pass short right to E.Wilson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.14%72.02 – 78.02Daniel Nguyen 60%
Sun 2:51pEmanuel Wilson (Daniel Nguyen) — Q2 00:47 · (Shotgun) E.Wilson left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.10%103.52 – 84.86Daniel Nguyen 80%

The Dolphins & Seahawks retard bowl.

Saturday, 9:37 AM.
Saturday, 9:37 AM.
Saturday, 10:01 PM.
Saturday, 10:01 PM.

I can't even take credit for forcing a bit for the newsletter — this was all Chan's doing. I was thinking too small, too narrow-minded. Of course we have to start D'Andre Swift and Javonte Elefante, what else could we possibly do? Thanks to the genius of Chan, we get the beauty of 2 retarded RB committees and a double TE matchup. Peak fantasy football shenanigans already in week 4.

Mine scored 43.5 — Emanuel Wilson 25.0, Ollie Gordon 18.5. His scored 3.2 😂😂😂 — George Holani 2.5, Jaylen Wright 0.7. And Chan, a man of his word, benched his RB1. Javonte Williams scored 28.8 on the bench.

For a little while it looked like enough of a landslide that the result wouldn't have mattered anyway, but Justin eventually figured out this was self-imposed misery 😂

Cooper Tuch, Justin Chan and AB, after.
Cooper Tuch, Justin Chan and AB, after.

Juwan got 8.9 and the rest was history.

If we'd started our RB1sWhat actually happened
Me134.82 (Swift 6.4 instead of Ollie 18.5)146.92
Chan139.46 (Javonte 28.8 instead of Wright 0.7)111.36
ResultChan wins by 4.64I win by 35.56

Chan is 1-3 and has lost three straight. He has the most points against in the league, which explains some of the record — he's doing himself no favors by creating an extra loss just for the lulz 😂


Power Rankings, week 4

Blended 46% roster talent / 54% results — results now outweigh the roster for the first time. Week 3 was 54/46.

#TrendTeamRecAll-playPFResultsRosterWhy
1=Kerry Chen 🍀4-032-121164-0, first in points and first on results.
2▲1Daniel Nguyen 🍀4-029-152234-0, 1.18 points of PF behind Amato.
3▼1Salmaan 💀2-226-18351Best roster in the league, and paid the $25.
4▲1Matthew McNamara 💀2-230-14444High score this week and the 2nd-best all-play record in the league.
5▲2Bhuh 🍀3-127-17539Low-key sleeper with Jayden Daniels returning from injury.
6▼2Eric Wang2-220-2410722nd-best roster, 35.70 on the bench, most erratic team in the league.
7▲1Hunter2-224-20667
8▼2Ahmad 💀1-319-25895
9▲2Jon Tsao 🍀2-214-3011810Maybe not as bad as his 14-30 all-play record implies. Hoop Boiz rising like morning wood.
10▼1Justin Chan 💀1-319-2591011Benched a 28.8 on purpose 😂
11▼1Adam Brandon 💀1-316-2871112At least he's the best bettor.
12=Derrick Choi 💀0-48-3612128Nothing good happening here.

All-play = record if you played the whole league every week. PF = points-for rank. Results = record, luck-adjusted all-play, points-for, recent form. Roster = value of the best legal lineup on FantasyPros rest-of-season. 🍀 luckier than the all-play says, 💀 unluckier.


Week 5 preview — what to watch

Last week before the In-Season Tournament: group play starts in Week 6. Projections are Sleeper's generic half-PPR, squeezed toward the mean.

MatchupProjectedSpread
Hunter vs Derrick Choi (coin flip)124.1 – 122.21.9
Jon Tsao vs Justin Chan (coin flip)131.5 – 134.32.8
Salmaan vs Bhuh125.8 – 135.59.7
Adam Brandon vs Eric Wang126.3 – 144.818.5
Daniel Nguyen vs Kerry Chen141.1 – 120.620.5
Ahmad vs Matthew McNamara132.3 – 110.521.8

Me vs Amato is the 4-0 vs 4-0 game — #1 against #2 in the power rankings, and 1.18 points apart in PF. I lead the series 5-2 in the regular season, plus a playoff win, and have won the last two. The projections have me by 20.5, which seems egregious.

Ahmad seeded Irish #12 in the survey and Josh had him #9, and Irish just beat the two Erics who voted him dead last. Ahmad is a 21.8-point favorite, the biggest gap on the board. Can Irish continue his reign against all his haters?

Generated from newsletter.md. Scores and stats pulled from Sleeper; win-probability curves reconstructed from NFL play-by-play under this league's scoring; advanced usage notes hand-curated. Corrections to the commissioner, who will ignore them.